Thawing permafrost in the Arctic region has the potential to release toxic substances, according to a study published in Nature Communications. Researchers warn that by the end of the century, over 2,000 industrial sites, including mines and pipelines, could be destabilized, along with 5,000 already-contaminated areas. The study is the first to identify the specific locations where thawing permafrost may release industrial pollutants, although there are likely more contaminated areas yet to be discovered. The release of these substances could have severe consequences for Arctic waterways, endangering fish and other wildlife, as well as posing risks to human health.

Permafrost refers to any soil, sediment, or rock that remains frozen for at least two years. However, due to climate change, the Arctic is warming at an alarming rate, and up to 65 percent of the region's permafrost may disappear by 2100. This thawing process could lead to the release of antibiotic-resistant bacteria, viruses, and radioactive waste from nuclear-testing programs, as previously warned by scientists.

To determine the potential spread of industrial pollutants in the warming Arctic, researchers analyzed the range of permafrost and the locations of industrial infrastructure. They identified around 4,500 sites, including oil fields and abandoned military installations, in areas where permafrost is likely to exist. Using contamination data from accessible records in Alaska and Canada, they found approximately 3,600 contaminated locations in those regions alone. However, these numbers are likely underestimated due to unreported incidents of contamination.

The study further extrapolated the presence of industrial contamination and permafrost across the entire Arctic, estimating that there could be 13,000 to 20,000 such sites today. Computer simulations were used to assess the impact of current and future levels of climate change. The findings revealed that even in a low-emissions scenario with a 2-degree Celsius increase in temperature by the end of the century, over 2,100 industrial sites and 5,600 to 10,000 contaminated areas could be at risk. Higher temperature increases would likely affect the majority of known and projected locations.

Given the potential risks posed by the release of pollutants, there is a growing need for proper management and containment measures. However, international regulations currently do not require industries in the Arctic to document the substances they use and store, making it challenging to assess and mitigate contamination risks. Further research is necessary to understand the impact of changing permafrost on existing infrastructure and the spread of industrial contaminants in the Arctic landscape.